Cause for Caution: A Pre-IE Week Perspective

With a significant portion of the global bunker market gathering in London next week, it feels like a pivotal moment for the industry:

Geopolitical Uncertainty & Sanctions Pressures

The Middle East crisis appears to be de-escalating for now, and there are tentative hopes for a resolution in Ukraine. However, any optimism is tempered by the continued economic and regulatory fallout from sanctions on Russia. Even if peace were achieved tomorrow, the likelihood of a swift rollback of these sanctions is slim. More realistically, the restrictions will persist and evolve, adding complexity to global trade.

Sanctions have long been perceived as an issue primarily affecting oil, but this oversimplified view is increasingly outdated. Over the past year, we’ve seen bulk cargoes—including various metals and industrial commodities—come under increasing scrutiny. Last year, a European heavy-lift operator was even added to the OFAC list for allegedly transporting parts for offshore Russian oil and gas projects. The net is widening, and the impact on global shipping and bunkering is profound.

A Dangerous Market for the Complacent

In a market this competitive, simply extending waiting periods and limiting business to familiar customers is not a viable strategy.
One of the major blind spots in compliance today is how easily some “dark fleet” tankers bypass scrutiny. Many of these vessels are auto-flagged as “green” (clear of sanctions risk) by major tracking and compliance systems. Why? Because they execute ship-to-ship (STS) transfers with dark vessels that have their AIS transponders switched off. If draught soundings are not reported, the transfer might never be detected.

The result? “Green” tankers shuttle dark cargoes from anchorages in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece, Egypt, Skaw, and beyond—seemingly unnoticed. Alarmingly, some less scrupulous bunker traders rely entirely on system-generated “green” flags without conducting their own due diligence. Given growing regulatory scrutiny, it’s only a matter of time before a bunker company finds itself caught in the crosshairs of OFAC or another enforcement agency. If (or rather when) that happens, the fallout will send shockwaves through the industry.

The Compliance Arms Race

As sanctions evasion techniques become more sophisticated, vessel tracking and compliance platforms are in a continuous battle to keep up. But the pace of adaptation is uneven, and gaps remain.  In a hyper-competitive market where margins are razor-thin, there are inevitably players willing to take the risk. And that risk is growing.

At Shipergy, we have always taken a conservative stance on credit and compliance. Every trade, every vessel, and every buyer is rigorously checked. No exceptions. It’s an exhaustive process, but it’s one we are committed to because we believe in protecting both ourselves and our clients. We’ve made significant investments in compliance resources—including people, systems, and processes—to ensure we maintain the highest standards. Many others, however, do not have the same capability or simply choose not to prioritize it.

What Can You Do?

• • If possible, use multiple providers for vessel tracking and compliance screening to cross-check data. This isn’t cheap, but in an environment where enforcement risks are escalating, it’s a necessary safeguard.

• • A well-defined policy is meaningless unless it is consistently applied, even under commercial pressure.

• • A dedicated compliance forum at major industry events like IE Week in London and SIBCON in Singapore would be invaluable. Such a platform could help develop guidance on regulatory best practices, template policies, and frameworks that companies can adopt. Perhaps organizations like the MFA or IBIA could play a role in leading this effort?

Looking Ahead to IE Week

If past IE Weeks are any indicator, the unofficial message on compliance will likely be “hang in there, roll with the punches.” While that may be the prevailing sentiment, we should be striving for something more—proactive solutions, better collaboration, and stronger safeguards.

I’m looking forward to discussing these issues with industry peers next week. If you’ll be in London for IE Week, let’s grab a coffee and chat.